A recent article in Forbes magazine has taken on the task of considering what to expect for the energy sector in the next decade. The text is based on estimates of what the year 2030 could look like in the energy industry according to Wood Mackenzie analysts, experts in the energy transition, energy and renewables, macro fuels, petrochemicals, gas, upstream, corporate, economics, metals, and mining.
According to the article, a decade of accelerated changes is coming in the energy sector in which we will see substantial advances in technology, smart cities, new energies, and the corporate landscape, among other things. Below, I share Forbes’ top 5 predictions for the next decade:
- New technologies:
The world is taking substantial steps towards decarbonization thanks to new technologies in the sector. Progress towards the use of solar and wind energy, with new energy storage innovations promising to balance the market, is expected.
We are already beginning to see how renewable energy generation is replacing the dominance of fossil fuels in green hydrogen pilot projects. Besides, in markets where there is access to adequate oil or gas deposits, carbon capture, and storage on an industrial scale opens up the prospect of prolonging the life of fossil fuels.
Among the new technology ventures in the sector, we find bio-methane as a net-zero emission gas, algae as a low emission bio-fuel, and biotechnological advances in the food chain that will change agriculture as we know it.
- Smart Cities
Some cities in China, California, Japan, and Europe are already giving us clues as to what the energy world will look like in the future, as they are leading the world in decarbonization. These cities already have smart homes that allow for complete control of energy consumption. They also have decentralized energy systems with distributed generation dominated by renewable energies, supported by technologies such as energy storage and electric vehicle charging. Gas continues to be part of these cities in a reserve capacity.
- New energy and resistance to fossil fuels
Fossil fuels continue to be the primary source of energy in developing countries where energy demand continues to rise. However, as the cost of renewable and low-carbon energy decreases, we can see an increase in the use of this new energy. Today, we see more and more tax rises and restrictions on fuel, so demand has begun to decline significantly. Besides, the Forbes article states that “electrification has brought the growth of global oil demand close to its peak, and in the developed world it is already declining.”
- Oil and gas investment, ESG, and finance
The oil and gas sector continues to be essential for the world economy. Moreover, thanks to digitalization, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, and supercomputing, the sector recovery continues to improve. However, the industry has been under pressure because of its undisputed environmental impact. These pressures have limited financing for industry players, and bank interest rates have risen significantly, so there is a risk that the price of oil will increase as countries opt for low-emission refined products that incorporate biofuels.
- Corporate outlook
The industry’s corporate overview is expected to change significantly over the next decade, with a large number of companies having to adapt to survive in a volatile market. As the industry consolidates and costs decrease, the number of players in the sector is decreasing. Although pre-and post-production activities still dominate the portfolios of most companies, investment is more and more limited.
Owner of several companies in the energy and mining sector, and inventor of the design and engineering of the Super Matroid Heater and Ultra Filtration Systems for the oil and gas industries.
