As we are aware, the global energy transition is underway. With global energy demand expected to grow by 30% during the 2015-2035 period, and with an average growth rate of 1.3% CAGR, how can the industry sustainably guarantee energy supply?
While it is true that the oil and gas industry has achieved significant technological advances and concern for the environment is encouraging a shift in primary energy demand still 80% of this demand is for fossil fuels. With this in mind, what is the role of the sector’s leading organizations? What is their position?
In 2018, the secretary-general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, recalled, “All OPEC countries signed the Paris Agreement.” With this, he signaled that the problem in the energy sector is “emissions from energy sources, such as gas or oil, so the solution lies in technologies, not in eliminating these sources.”
According to OPEC, between now and 2040, the world economy will grow by 200% and the population, now at more than 1.2 billion people, will exceed 9 billion, so the world will need much more energy. Therefore, it is important to emphasize that access to energy is a necessity, not a luxury.
Thus, to guarantee energy supply, it will be essential to increase all energy sources except coal, which will begin to decline in 2030 according to a unanimous decision among countries. Similarly, renewable energies -particularly solar and wind, will have the highest growth rates (7.4% per year between 2015 and 2040).
Although there is a prediction that renewables will make up 25% of the energy mix, oil and gas will continue to dominate, making up 53% of the total (28% oil and 25% gas). With this said, statistics suggest that in 50 years from now, the world will still be dependent on the usage of fossil fuels.
This is why OPEC’s role as a governing body will be decisive in the conciliation between oil-producing countries and the outlining of strategic measures that will contribute to the balance of supply and demand. Likewise, the rational exploitation of resources in each nation will be essential. OPEC’s mission must begin to take a turn towards a real transition to the use of renewable energies, trying to find an adequate energy balance that will make it possible to reduce the excessive consumption of oil and gas by the major powers.
Owner of several companies in the energy and mining sector, and inventor of the design and engineering of the Super Matroid Heater and Ultra Filtration Systems for the oil and gas industries.
